On February 28, 2026, large-scale armed conflict began with a preemptive strike on Iran by the United States and Israel, heightening military tensions. Especially, this ongoing large-scale military operation and armed conflict has been creating extensive impact and tension in the international community. To accurately understand the historical background and facts, GIST News has interviewed Professor Jin Hwalmin of the Department of Political Science at Chonnam National University.
Background and Causes of the Armed Conflict
The United States and Iran have maintained hostile relations due to existing issues surrounding nuclear negotiations and the so-called “Axis of Resistance*”. Professor Jin Hwal-min explained that “within this relationship, war between the two countries was structurally always possible.”
Professor Jin identified three major causes of the current armed conflict. First, he pointed out that if nuclear negotiations with Iran did not proceed in the direction desired by the United States, the U.S. would intend to fundamentally eliminate Iran’s future nuclear development capabilities by removing its leadership and destroying its nuclear facilities. Second, he explained that there was a strategic calculation to reduce Iran’s ability to attack U.S. allies and military bases in the Middle East, including Israel, by fundamentally eliminating Iran’s military capabilities, such as ballistic missiles. Lastly, he pointed out President Trump’s urgent need for a foreign policy achievement to overcome the political crisis he was facing domestically. He assessed that the confidence gained from the relatively smooth regime change against Venezuela’s Maduro administration led to expectations of similar success in Iran.
Progress and the Current Situation
On February 28, 2026, the armed conflict began with a preemptive strike on Iran. The bombing that day killed high-ranking officials, including Ali Khamenei. Professor Jin explained that by “successfully killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, removing key political and military leaders, and eliminating Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities, their primary objectives can be seen as having been achieved.” However, he added, “since Iran has accumulated missile technology for decades, and has also recently developed drone attack capabilities, it continues to attack U.S. military bases and Israel. Additionally, although Iran has not completely blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, through selective attacks on vessels and threats of a full blockade, it is raising energy prices, such as oil”. In other words, full-scale war and Iranian retaliation have expanded, where Iran used the Strait of Hormuz as its strategic card.
In this situation, the U.S. has requested countries such as South Korea and Japan to dispatch warships to the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, ground forces, including the Marine Corps, have begun moving to the Middle East, where an order was issued to deploy 2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region in late March.
On April 7 local time, the U.S. announced a two-week ceasefire on the condition that Iran would agree to fully, immediately, and safely open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran was also known to have accepted the ceasefire proposal.
International Impact
This armed conflict is having various effects on the international community. Among them, the rise in international oil prices is mentioned most frequently. The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage through which about 20% of global crude shipments pass, has effectively been closed due to U.S. military operations and Iranian retaliation. Consequently, transport of large quantities of crude has been disrupted, leading to the continuing rise of oil prices and instability worldwide. South Korea, in particular, is expected by experts to suffer significant damage because it relies heavily on the Middle East, importing around 70% of its crude from the region. In addition, domestic sectors directly related to rising oil prices, such as gas, electricity, and water utilities, may also suffer chain effects. Professor Jin explained that “no matter how capable the U.S. military is, if Iran blocks movement through the Strait of Hormuz using drones, mines, and missiles, it is true that there are few practical ways to reopen it”, pointing out that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz carries considerable influence and will not be easy to resolve.
Professor Jin also explained that in the Middle East, major oil-producing countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have had their energy production capabilities reduced due to Iranian attacks, while oil exports have sharply declined due to passage restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that although the Arab states hope for a diplomatic compromise between the United States and Iran, if the war develops into a full-scale conflict, they will have no choice but to align with the United States. However, Arab Monarchies have fragile domestic political foundations. Therefore, if they attack another Islamic country together with the United States, they may face internal uneasiness and political backlash that could threaten the regime’s stability, where they are expected to continue to act cautiously rather than fully joining the United States in attacking Iran.
Although U.S. President Trump requested military cooperation, such as dispatching warships to the Strait of Hormuz, from South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, China, Japan, and the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member states, most of the requested countries have taken a cautious stance toward military support. Professor Jin analyzed that this behavior is because “Europe’s greatest security threat is the danger posed by Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine” and that “relations are not favorable due to President Trump’s criticism of NATO and his economic and diplomatic threats toward allied countries.”
Application of AI in Warfare
Amid this situation, the conflict between the U.S. private AI company “Anthropic” and the U.S. Department of War has drawn attention. Under the second Trump administration, the Department of War demanded that Anthropic allow the military to use its AI model “Claude” without restriction under any “lawful purposes”. However, Anthropic stated that its AI could not be used for large-scale mass surveillance or fully autonomous lethal weapons. In response, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has exerted pressure by designating Anthropic as a supply-chain risk company. This measure has typically been applied by the U.S. to companies from hostile countries, making it the first time a domestic company has been targeted.
Key Takeaways of the US–Iran Armed Conflict
This armed conflict offers several implications. First, in terms of international impact, it confirms that a conflict between specific countries does not end merely as a problem between those countries. This incident has brought renewed attention to the fact that the economies, politics, militaries, and interests of numerous countries are intricately interconnected.
Second, military strategy has also changed. Professor Jin explained, “Since the Russia–Ukraine War, drones have been widely used. The nature of the battlefield has shifted toward drone warfare, and because North Korea, despite its weaker conventional military and economic power, can actively use drones, the question of how to defend against them will have a major impact on the South Korean military and defense industry”.
In addition, South Korean weapons systems are also receiving attention in this armed conflict. Professor Jin stated that the performance of South Korean weapons systems such as M-SAM II has been proven and is drawing attention, where although this can be viewed positively in terms of economic gains through the expansion of South Korea’s defense industry, it may also unexpectedly cause the problem of South Korea becoming “caught up” in the armed conflict. This means that providing weapons and technological systems to allies may be perceived by the opposing country as a hostile act. He also added that “we need to carefully consider not only the benefits we gain, but also the potential risks”.
The issue of the permissible scope of AI use also cannot be ignored. Although during this war experts generally assessed that AI played a major role in carrying out military operations, the “Anthropic incident” has also sparked controversy over how far AI should be used. It is now a necessary time to sufficiently discuss the ethical boundaries and standards regarding the usage of AI.
* The “Axis of Resistance” is used to refer to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militant organizations in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. Through these forces, Iran has projected influence in the region, which the United States has perceived as a threat to Israel and its Gulf allies.
Translated by Yoonseo Huh
